Saturday, July 05, 2008

Central Bank v George Lee

I do not post the item in praise of George Lee. The poor man makes me reach for the Lyric button. I want to know what is the difference between snake-oil salesmen and Central Bank Governors or non-independent economists.

11.07.07 Central Bank Governor John Hurley has said the outlook for the Irish economy is still favourable, despite the risks associated with currency markets, oil prices and a slowdown in the housing sector. Speaking at the publication of the bank's annual report, he forecast that the economy would grow by around 5% this year, easing to around 4% in 2008. On the housing market, Mr Hurley said the most likely scenario was a 'soft landing', adding that recent house price figures were 'more consistent with stability'.

27.07.07 Economy in good shape. Conor White wrote the following. However, a soft landing is still the most likely outcome in our view, with construction activity falling more in line with fundamental demand, mortgage credit growth easing and house prices remaining flat.

06.06.07 Bank predicts property soft landing. Ireland's property market is on track for a soft landing this year, and its construction sector will remain strong due to investment in infrastructure, the governor of the Central Bank said today."The construction sector is still very, very strong," John Hurley said in Dublin, adding that although the building of houses was set to gradually reduce over time there was still an infrastructure deficit to be addressed.

29.08.07 Dan Deering; “Employment in Ireland is also strong, maintaining strong affordability levels for first time buyers. By the year’s end we expect to see house prices fall marginally compared to prices at the end of 2006 and then remain unchanged as we move into 2008,” said Deering.


GEORGE LEE: Yes, it (construction) sure is the main player. One in four men are employed in this sector and it continues to expand at a huge rate. But it can't keep going like this forever. Construction booms have never ended in a soft landing in any of the 26 countries analysed by the OECD over a 46-year period. On that basis it is far more rational to expect the construction boom to end in a hard landing rather than a soft landing. However, all our politicians and economists think we are going to buck that trend. I wouldn't put my money of it. We'll see.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

george is a god!